Heat pump sales drop for first time

For the first time since the heat pump became a good alternative to the central heating on a large scale, the number of heat pumps sold in the Netherlands has decreased. Figures from CBS show that 393 thousand heat pumps were sold in the Netherlands in 2024. That is 14 percent less than in 2023.

That number is even 2 percent less than in 2022. There were a total of 2.6 million heat pumps in the Netherlands by the end of 2024. Despite the lower sales figures, the total number of heat pumps did increase by 17 percent. This is because more heat pumps were added in 2024 than were taken out of service.

Uncertainty in the market

For years, the policy has been to promote heat pumps, and for a long time there has been strong growth. There was even talk of an obligation to purchase a hybrid heat pump if the central heating boiler needed replacing. The current administration put a stop to that, creating uncertainty in the market. Consumers are now apparently more reluctant to buy a heat pump.

The largest decline

Of the three types of heat pumps at the end of 2024, 72 percent were air-to-air heat pumps, or air conditioners, 22 percent were air-to-water heat pumps and 6 percent were ground or water heat pumps.

The biggest decline was seen in ground or water heat pumps. As many as 35 percent fewer of these were sold in 2024. The sharp increase in this type of heat pump was because since mid-2018 new buildings are no longer allowed to be connected to the natural gas grid. That means these buildings depend on a heat grid or a heat pump. This is reflected in the sales figures of ground or water heat pumps, which are mainly installed in new construction. After a strong increase between 2018 and 2020, sales figures for these types of heat pumps remained relatively stable between 2020 and 2022, as did new construction figures. Sales still increased in 2023, but 2024 thus shows a clear reversal.

Air-water and air conditioners

Sales of air-to-water heat pumps fell 29 percent from 2023. The growth in recent years was caused by the rising price of natural gas, which caused people to look for ways to save natural gas. These can be installed in both new construction and existing buildings.

Of the air-to-water heat pumps sold, an increasing proportion are hybrid, in 2024 it was 42 percent. Hybrid heat pumps are only installed in existing buildings because new buildings do not have natural gas connections.

Air-to-air heat pumps - or air conditioners - are installed in both new construction and existing buildings. Sales of this type of heat pump increased sharply between 2018 and 2020, but the number stabilized in the following years.

Subsidies mostly to non-urban areas

Anyone installing an air-water heat pump or ground or water heat pump in an existing building can take advantage of The ISDE subsidy scheme. Between 2022 and 2024, 228 thousand air-water heat pumps and 10 thousand ground or water heat pumps were purchased with an ISDE subsidy. Such a subsidy is more often applied for air-water heat pumps than for ground or water heat pumps, because this scheme does not apply to new construction. Subsidized heat pumps ended up mainly in municipalities outside urban areas.